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Public record · posted 24 hours later

How Euro-dollar reacts to Trump's posts

EUR/USD · all markets

Across 102 measured posts, Euro-dollar moved beyond its own normal range 7 times: 7% of the time.

Its typical move is 0.010%, counting every measured post, including all the times nothing happened. On the times it did react, the median was 0.060%.

In 91 cases out of 102 the move came back within the measurement window: it is why trades close by themselves instead of staying open. When it did come back, it took 5 minutes from the post, as a median.

"Beyond its own normal range" means at least 2× what this market normally does: the threshold is this market's own, not one number for everybody.

It is a count of what has happened so far: on the next post these numbers say nothing.

The last times it moved

These are the times this market cleared its own normal range, not the latest posts: in all the others it stayed put. The chart shows this market's line alone, as the change from the minute of the post.

07/08/2026 15:36 · @realDonaldTrump · Truth Social
+0.06%

«A must read! Thank you to James Jay Carafano! Donald Trump Won The Iran War: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/08/donald-trump-won-the-iran-war/»

Across the markets: NORMAL RANGE · original post ↗

Measured markets from half an hour before to an hour after the 15:36 post, as percentage change from the moment of the post. Largest moves: EUR/USD +0.06%.0%EUR/USD+0.11%-0.13%30 min before15:36+60 min
EUR/USD+0.06%

The market's change from the minute of the post. The gold line is the post, the band the five minutes the reaction is measured on.

07/08/2026 16:22 · U.S. Trade Representative · official release
-0.04%

«Ambassador Greer Issues Statement Welcoming S&P Global’s Release of Critical Minerals Pricing Benchmarks — Ambassador Greer Issues Statement Welcoming S&P Global’s Release of C…»

Across the markets: NORMAL RANGE · original post ↗

Measured markets from half an hour before to an hour after the 16:22 post, as percentage change from the moment of the post. Largest moves: EUR/USD -0.04%.0%EUR/USD+0.04%-0.12%30 min before16:22+60 min
EUR/USD-0.04%

The market's change from the minute of the post. The gold line is the post, the band the five minutes the reaction is measured on.

07/08/2026 14:32 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · official data
-0.07%

«Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers — Consumer Price Index (CPI): -0.4% in Jun 2026 · Unemployment Rate: 4.1% in Jul 2026 · Payroll Employment: -23,000(p) in Jul 2026 · Averag…»

Across the markets: NORMAL RANGE · original post ↗

Measured markets from half an hour before to an hour after the 14:32 post, as percentage change from the moment of the post. Largest moves: EUR/USD -0.07%.0%EUR/USD+0.23%-0.33%30 min before14:32+60 min
EUR/USD-0.07%

The market's change from the minute of the post. The gold line is the post, the band the five minutes the reaction is measured on.

31/07/2026 17:22 · State Department · official release
+0.06%

«Additions to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Entity List — Today, the United States added 43 companies based in China to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Entit…»

Across the markets: NORMAL RANGE · original post ↗

Measured markets from half an hour before to an hour after the 17:22 post, as percentage change from the moment of the post. Largest moves: EUR/USD +0.06%.0%EUR/USD+0.18%-0.06%30 min before17:22+60 min
EUR/USD+0.06%

The market's change from the minute of the post. The gold line is the post, the band the five minutes the reaction is measured on.

30/07/2026 19:56 · State Department · official release
+0.05%

«United States Sanctioning Iran’s Mahan Air Network and IRGC-Linked Front Company — The United States today sanctioned six entities and individuals in China, India, Russia, and Iran…»

Across the markets: NORMAL RANGE · original post ↗

Measured markets from half an hour before to an hour after the 19:56 post, as percentage change from the moment of the post. Largest moves: EUR/USD +0.05%.0%EUR/USD+0.09%-0.12%30 min before19:56+60 min
EUR/USD+0.05%

The market's change from the minute of the post. The gold line is the post, the band the five minutes the reaction is measured on.

29/07/2026 20:00 · Federal Reserve · official release
+0.16%

«Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement»

Across the markets: UP · original post ↗

Measured markets from half an hour before to an hour after the 20:00 post, as percentage change from the moment of the post. Largest moves: EUR/USD +0.16%.0%EUR/USD+0.41%-0.30%30 min before20:00+60 min
EUR/USD+0.16%

The market's change from the minute of the post. The gold line is the post, the band the five minutes the reaction is measured on.

The other markets we measure

Bitcoin · Gold · Silver · S&P 500 · Nasdaq · Dow Jones · Oil · Natural gas · Copper · Chinese yuan · Mexican peso · US Treasuries · Volatility · Italy · Germany · Euro Stoxx 50

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